Battle Plans
By Yossi Klein Halevi
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Israel's next war has begun...
The goals of the war should be the destruction of the Hamas regime and the
dismantling of the Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Israel cannot
coexist with Iranian proxies pressing in on its borders. In particular, allowing
Hamas to remain in power — and to run the Palestinian educational system — will
mean the end of hopes for Arab-Israeli reconciliation not only in this
generation but in the next one too.
For the Israeli right, this is the moment of "We told you so." The fact that the
kidnappings and missile attacks have come from southern Lebanon and Gaza —
precisely the areas from which Israel has unilaterally withdrawn — is proof, for
right-wingers, of the bankruptcy of unilateralism. Yet the right has always
misunderstood the meaning of unilateral withdrawal. Those of us who have
supported unilateralism didn't expect a quiet border in return for our
withdrawal but simply the creation of a border from which we could more
vigorously defend ourselves, with greater domestic consensus and international
understanding. The anticipated outcome, then, wasn't an illusory peace but a
more effective way to fight the war. The question wasn't whether Hamas or
Hezbollah would forswear aggression but whether Israel would act with
appropriate vigor to their continued aggression.
So it wasn't the rocket attacks that were a blow to the unilateralist camp, but
rather Israel's tepid responses to those attacks. If unilateralists made a
mistake, it was in believing our political leaders — including Ariel Sharon and
Ehud Olmert — when they promised a policy of zero tolerance against any attacks
emanating from Gaza after Israel's withdrawal. That policy was not implemented —
until two weeks ago. Now, belatedly, the Olmert government is trying to regain
something of its lost credibility, and that is the real meaning of this initial
phase of the war, both in Gaza and in Lebanon.
Still, many in Israel believe that, even now, the government is acting with
excessive restraint. One centrist friend of mine, an Olmert voter, said to me,
"If we had assassinated [Hamas leader] Haniyeh after the first kidnapping,
[Hezbollah leader] Nasrallah would have thought twice about ordering another
kidnapping." Israel, then, isn't paying for the failure of unilateral
withdrawal, but for the failure to fulfill its promise to seriously respond to
provocations after withdrawal.
Absurdly, despite Israel's withdrawal to the international borders with Lebanon
and Gaza, much of the international community still sees the kidnapping of
Israeli soldiers as a legitimate act of war: Just as Israel holds Palestinian
and Lebanese prisoners, so Hamas and Hezbollah now hold Israeli prisoners. One
difference, though, is that inmates in Israeli jails receive visits from family
and Red Cross representatives, while Israeli prisoners in Gaza and Lebanon
disappear into oblivion. Like Israeli pilot Ron Arad, who was captured by
Hezbollah 20 years ago, then sold to Iran, and whose fate has never been
determined. That is one reason why Israelis are so maddened by the kidnapping of
their soldiers.
Another reason is the nature of the crimes committed by the prisoners whose
release is being demanded by Hezbollah and Hamas. One of them is Samir Kuntar, a
PLO terrorist who in 1979 broke into an apartment in the northern Israeli town
of Nahariya, took a father and child hostage, and smashed the child's head
against a rock. In the Palestinian Authority, Kuntar is considered a hero, a
role model for Palestinian children.
The ultimate threat, though, isn't Hezbollah or Hamas but Iran. And as Iran
draws closer to nuclear capability — which the Israeli intelligence community
believes could happen this year — an Israeli-Iranian showdown becomes
increasingly likely. According to a very senior military source with whom I've
spoken, Israel is still hoping that an international effort will stop a nuclear
Iran; if that fails, then Israel is hoping for an American attack. But if the
Bush administration is too weakened to take on Iran, then, as a last resort,
Israel will have to act unilaterally. And, added the source, Israel has the
operational capability to do so.
For Israelis, that is the worst scenario of all. Except, of course, the scenario
of nuclear weapons in the hands of the patron state of Hezbollah and Hamas.
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